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Jonathan Hayward / AP
Hold your horses, bacon lovers! There's no need to buy a deep freezer and fill it with all the bacon you can get your hands on.
Don't worry, no one is coming for your BLT.
Even though headlines for the past couple of days screamed, “Bacon shortage!” (including one of our own) and social media blew up with jokes about the impending “porkocalypse,” it's all a lot of oinking over nothing.
The summer drought, and rising corn prices have hurt hog farmers for sure. Soy, a component of hog meal, is also costing more, driven by ravenous demand by China. But all that will only lead to bacon being temporarily more expensive, not an outright “shortage.”
“It's a challenging time because of drought for both consumers and producers and food costs will rise,” Cindy Cunningham of the National Pork Board told NBC News, but we're “not going to see people in line for bacon... there will be no bacon rationing.”
Let's look at some basic economics.
First, as long as prices are allowed to rise and fall freely, there can be no shortage. Shortages only occur when the government fixes prices and consumers want more supply than exists. That results in rationing. There's zero evidence to suggest the government would do that, or that there would be any “runs on the pork bank.”
“As long as prices roam free, there's never a shortage or a glut,” said Bob Brown, an independent meat market analyst in Edmond, Okla. “It will find a way to clear the market.”
The only sign of a pork shortage is a press release from Britain's National Pig Association proclaiming, “A world shortage of pork and bacon next year is now unavoidable.”
But let's put on our critical reading glasses. The rest of the notice points to declining sow herds in the EU and asks British supermarkets to pay higher prices to pig farmers. It asks for shoppers to only buy British-made pork to protect British farmers, identifiable by the “Red Tractor” symbol on the package as part of a “Save our Bacon” campaign.
"British supermarkets know they have to raise the price they pay Britain's pig farmers or risk empty spaces on their shelves next year," said NPA chairman Richard Longthorp in the press release. "But competition is so fierce in the high street at present, each is waiting for the other to move first."
Get it? This is an attempt by British pig producers to build grassroots support among British shoppers to apply pressure to supermarkets. Their tool for propping up prices is fear, wrapped in bacon, wrapped in the Union Jack. It's pork propaganda.
The release also warned that prices could rise as much as 10 percent. The USDA has forecast only a 2.5-3.5 percent increase.
So hold your horses, bacon lovers, there's no need to buy a deep freezer and fill it with all the bacon you can get your hands on. The green number on the LCD screen at checkout might be slightly higher than what you're used to, but there's no bacon crisis.
“Bacon prices in the next few months should be quite stable as there is a steady supply of pork going to market and in cold storage,” said Matt Swantek, Swine Field Specialist at Iowa State University.
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Enjoy all the bacon while you can! Experts are telling consumers to expect rising pork prices, since farmers thinned their herds this year because of the high cost of feed.
Leave a Comment:
Why do shows like the Today show try to panic people? Remember the so called rice shortage that they reported as doom and gloom? Never happened. I think these news organizations should be held accountable when they cause panic without fully investigating the facts.
Agreed!!! I can't believe they are all allowed to go along with tabloid like mentality. I am still waiting for someone to call a big old B S flag on them....it'll never happen.
Exaggeration to drive up sales.... not surprising. Just another example of how honest we can expect big businesses in general to be (when they're not forced into it)
If you panicked over a possible bacon shortage, you have only yourself to blame.
This BS media blitz to get everyone worried to pay more has happened twice in the past...first it was cement products (gasp! we are running out of lime!) and then it was antifreeze (OMG ! we have no more glycol!) As the nation of sheep that we are and giving the medias "we are here to scare save you" we buy into this crap everytime.
.....now if beer prices increase, we got a problem.....
All livestock goes in cycles. When prices are high and grains are cheap, farmers will breed more pigs, cows, chickens, turkeys, etc. and make money for a year or so. When more pigs, cows, etc. are produced, prices will go down and farmers will cut back supply.
In this case, grains are expensive, so farmers are reducing their breeding sows which will reduce supply and raise the price.
This cycle has been happening for hundreds of years.
The bigger problem is "journalists" with absolutely no understanding of how markets work.
Allen,
It's been at least three times. Claiming there is an oil shortege has driven fuel oil and gas prices up astronomically.
I quit eating bacon decades ago, drove my chloresterol over the limit. American bacon is more fat than lean.
best way to cook bacon, paper plate wrapped in paper towel in microwave, gets most of the fat out; bring home the bacon.
I've noticed bacon prices rising.
Guess what I did? I stopped by buying bacon.
it's not as complicated as the obese idiots make it seem.
"Bacon shortage is a fat load of bull"
It's pork really...
Maybe they should stop the news media from putting some items on the news, We in this country are losing a lot of the freedoms we had because of a lot of bleeding hearts and our congress and possibably the white house. More or less gun control could happen and the only ones having a weapon would be the rich... So neither one of the guys running for president are worth the vote.. Think before you vote
I enjoyed the scare mongering. It gave the self appointed food police a chance to moralize about things which is always funny. But my favorite response was the woman who said she didn't care if bacon disappeared because she eats breakfast sausage.
Freedom of the press. Freedom to ignore the press too.
Good time to switch to turkey bacon.
The article admits this site posted a misleading article the other day. The media is causing the friction we have in this country. They are choosing sides and are no longer informing the public, they are dictating to the public. Deciding for themselves what is newsworthy and what isn't. It's why politicians on both sides can do something wrong and get away with it. Half the media will report and blame and the other half will ignore it. Anything that is protected by the first amendment should have more respect for that protection.
Just bought a LB. of premium bacon for $5.50 the case was full. Not scarce at all not double the price from a year ago. Show like American Hogger and Pig Bomb say we are over run with wild hogs.
BTW,
"If you panicked over a possible bacon shortage, you have only yourself to blame."
So true. I can't even remember when the last time I ate pig meat was, and I'm not even Jewish or Muslim. But some people will just die without a slice of pig every now and then, I guess. To each his own.
When I saw bacon donuts I thought I had seen every conceivable use for bacon and then I saw bacon ice cream! Is there no end for the use of the wonder meat?
I'd bet the price of pork bellies went up on the commodities market.
I don't suppose that would have had anything to do with writing the article.
It was al-Qaeda again trying to scare us.......Is there no end to their terror tactics!!!
Anything to get an article, spin the news. Journalist's will do anything to get an article using lies or truths, mostly lies.
No integrity in news today unlike the newsmen of the 50's and 60's.
Bacon should be declared a matter of national security and the industry should be declared a public utility and regulated. Life without Bacon makes people irate like the Jewish and Muslim people. A couple of BLTs for these people would end the centuries old mindless killing in the Middle East.
Ha, good one. I was thinking of a new weapon since their is no shortage, we will nail the Taliban with "Bacon Bombs!!", then they will consider themselves "unclean" and then have to behead eachother. lol
Great Idea. I don't know though wasting bacon on people who don't appreciate it is an abomination.
Dave, run for political office! Your logic and intelligence make you a shoe in. And please pass the bacon.
Yes, yes! Dave for President
We'll change the plane's name to Bacon One. We'll ditch the blue and white paint and have the signature bacon image (wavy, alternating light/dark meat stripes, sizzling) running the length of the craft.
I'm kind of tearing up thinking about it.
Bacon - Yum.............
Bacon is a religion .. and should be protected like one
Not bacon bombs but release 2500 wild hogs in Afghanistan they will be over run in no time.
Coral Taxi,
"I was thinking of a new weapon since their is no shortage, we will nail the Taliban with "Bacon Bombs!!"
I was in the military during the first Gulf War, and we were receiving intelligence reports that the Iraqi troops were starving in their trenches for lack of supplies. Someone in my unit with a macabre sense of humor suggested that we fly a C-130 over their trenches and drop thousands of ham sandwiches on them to prevent starvation.
Obama's fault
Looks like muslim radicals have succeeded in bringing about the Aporkalypse.
Bacon bombs and a shipment of American flags marinated in lethal toxins that are emitted when ignited. Simple solution to mideast crisis and not a single soldier harmed.
@ Mickey;
Too funny. Patton might have tried it, if he lived in this time.
Coral Taxi,
"Patton might have tried it, if he lived in this time."
He just might have done that, I think. The question in my mind at that time was, "Would those starving Iraqi soldiers have eaten those ham sandwiches even though it is against their religion?" Starvation is a painful way to die, and desperation can cause a person to put aside religious principles for the sake of living. I read once about a Vietnam veteran who was shot down in the jungles of Vietnam and was starving. He saw a rat scurry past him and grabbed it and ate it alive and raw. The same thing tells me those Iraqis would have put Allah's laws aside long enough to eat those ham sandwiches although they might have had guilty consciences afterward, guilty consciences but full bellies.
"But let's put on our critical reading glasses. The rest of the notice points to declining sow herds in the EU and asks British supermarkets to pay higher prices to pig farmers. It asks for shoppers to only buy British-made pork to protect British farmers, identifiable by the “Red Tractor” symbol on the package as part of a “Save our Bacon” campaign."
It's a red herring. According to local news services in BRITTON, the pig farmers don't know what the hell the news story is all about. They do NOT have a pig shortage. In fact their numbers have increased, not decreased.
So in essence, someone is playing the numbers in order to raise the costs of pork. They are trying to get Wall Street, and players of market pricing to go up.
And that is illegal.
Where's "BRITTON?"
Bacon speculators are the least of our concerns when it comes to illegal activity on Wall Street... lets talk about carbon markets. And futures.
cbrownisbrownlikepoo, I don't know but I hear it's Great!
cbrownisbrownlikepoo
Where's "BRITTON?"
In Yerup?
AHMERGERD, Yerup!!
... If anyone wants to take my last piece of Bacon from me - they will have to pry it from my cold, dead fingers....
From your cold, dead, greasy fingers?
With a country that is steadily moving up the "obese" scale, would it be such a bad thing to have a bacon shortage?
There we go again with the saturated fat myth! We don't need a bacon shortage to cure obesity, we need a shortage of grains, sugar, high fructose corn syrup, and refined foods...not gonna happen though.
Bacon is an excellent source of HEALTHY saturated fat (Google "Paleo" if you're not up-to-date).
So, bacon is taboo. It makes fat people, or only fat people eat it is what your saying? I know several plants which isn't necasarily "good" and causes people to "bulk" up, and that includes such starch foods as POTATOES.
So your little Bacon = Fat people is garbage. I can easily just as well say that Potatoes = Fat people too. So you shouldn't eat potatoes, because you'll become fat. Oh, and that is NOT including french fries. That's baked potatoes, mashed potatoes, stir fried potatoes...
If I'm going to be going into old age, at least i'd like to savor the flavor of bacon while doing so on my own terms. What are they going to do next? Oh, we can't allow 16oz sodas in New York, it'll make people fat. Need more healthy food choices in kids happy meals, or the kids will turn fat.
Let's just pass legislation for fat free bacon...and turn it into some flavorless white meat substitute that's more healthy to the people of the world. Fat = flavor.
When I buy hamburger it's 80 ground beef + 20% fat. You know why I buy it? BECAUSE IT HAS MORE FLAVOR! I enjoy fatty bacon, for it's FLAVOR, not it's health value quotiant. Of course that statement alone is going to make certain doctors shake their head. "He won't live to be 100 with those health values."
That's right, I expect to live to be over 150!
@IndigoKid: The calories in 9 of the new "triple double oreo" cookie is equal to A POUND (read: two packages) of bacon.
Now, call me crazy, but it seems to me that bacon is not the problem in our supermarkets.
Indigo, a bacon shortage would mean a pork shortage. Lean pork loin is now generally cheaper than chicken and far healthier than beef. Think kid, think.
All of the bacon is being bought up by Guantanamo.
I agree with TraneTrax. As humans, we need fat for healthy brains (which are made up mostly of... yes, fat). The low-fat fraud is killing us, replacing fat with sugars (or worse, synthetic alternatives like the ever favorite aspartame) and salt. Fat is good for you. Of course, everything in moderation, so a pure fat diet or one excessively reliant on animal fat would not be good, but it is an important part of our diets.
Why is there never a broccoli shortage?
I remember last year I was told to stock up on pumpkin because of the shortage. Recently, it was rice, corn, and turkey. Whatever.
Bacon has risen over 30% locally over the last year from about $2.75 a lb to about $4.00 a pound. Maybe it has only 2.5-3.5% left to go (this week).
The price increases are real and large.
When the price of fuel goes up, everything goes up
Oh thank the lord and pass the bacon.
The price of Oscar Maier is up to $6.99 per lb here.
Bacon is not good for you anyway, too much fat!
I am happy when I eat bacon, therefore it is good for me.
The last time I bought Oscar Meyer bacon, it was US$3.99/lb. That was about a year ago. Last week, it was $7.99/lb at the same store.
That's a bit more than a 3.5% increase.
And yes, I bought 5lb packages at $3.50/lb from Costco and dropped them in the freezer. Sausage too.
Awkward. A better one is Aporkcalypse.
Agreed, economykiller. Very awkward. These made-up words can be funny when they aren't forced or contrived.
Aporkalypse Now
"I love the smell of bacon in the morning"
Mmm, so it IS the Wall Streeters, trying to manipulate pork belly prices?? I knew the "shortage" was all a ruse to justify a price increase. As if seven bucks for a pack o' pork isn't enough. Sad.
Who knew a pig's ass could cause world panic.
Let's not bring politics into this. ;-)
Pig's belly if you are getting technical. Hams are from the region you are referring to.
I stand corrected. Sorry for my pignorance.
This thread just gets better all the time!
While some may not believe this story there may be some pignificance to it.
Love it..you guys are so very funny..
Sow what else is new?
People need to quit swining. Plenty of bacon for everyone!
We all know the horse's asses in government pose a much bigger threat.
Ummm, bacon! Ranks right up there in the top five worst things anyone could possibly eat in terms of being very unhealthy. But it's oh, so good! Turkey bacon is an ok substitute, but it isn't the real thing.
I don't eat pork anymore, so therefore don't eat bacon (gasp, I know) and last time I visited home, my mom got me turkey bacon (must be the Scandinavian guilt, so she feels the need to get me an alternative). Anyway, I must say, it is NOT an ok substitute. Even if I didn't remember the taste of bacon, I wouldn't believe that crap is good. Sorry, but is like eating rubber bands. :)
Turkey bacon - yuk.
Turkey bacon will be a good substitute when pigs fly.
fly where????
To Sowth America ?
Pigsburg?
grin
Everything is going up, and the government loves it. No new taxes, remember that one!
What they do is get prices up with their BS and collect more taxes. But, the tax rate stays the same percentage, 10% of a dollar is $0.10, 10% of $1.50 is $0.15. Same percentage, yet more tax revenue.
It's all BULL $HIT!
*cough* food isnt taxed. you know this right?
what you're REALLY railing on about is Wall Street gouging you.
Stupid is as stupid does...i bet you're voting for Mitt Romney too huh?
oh, this would be hilarious if it werent true.
*edited to add - it's called inflation, and as more people have less money...the costs goes up (supply and demand)...couple into that the fact that we've had some weather issues affecting crops, and costs go up too (but it's not like we'd collectively address issues like drought with water holdings...too logical, costs too much money up front...the people can just pay for it when your normally $2/lb tomatoes costs $4/lb. WE ARE DUMB! and doomed by greed...particularly of the big business kind. "its socialism if we safeguard the majority of americans from unnecessary increases in product costs!! in communism too! probably marxism as well!!!"
again, you reap what you sow...or dont sow in this case.
Or maybe you should say pig$hit since this was about pigs.
Jessica- in some places, food actually is taxed... just depends on where you are. In my area, food is taxed at about half the rate of everything else, but we do still get taxed on it.
Jessica- obviously from some state of confusion..........
"Everything is going up, and the government loves it. No new taxes, remember that one!"
Do you see the word EVERYTHING! Are you F'n blind girl?
Get that IPad-ICrap removed from your anal cavity, and start understanding what you see, read, and hear!
And by the way hog futures are bought and sold on the Chicago market place.
Bacon prices go hog wild. Should have seen this coming.
OMG!?
It was all about the money!? That's so much less interesting. I guess its a good thing I'm not big on baccon anyway.
I don't care about the price of bacon...I generally eat the real good bacon that's not typically found in your run of the mill grocery store. Sometimes I pay 8 or 9 dollars a pound. No, I'm not a 1%er I just like good bacon! Oscar Mayer...no! Hormel...no! Farmer John...no! Falls Brand pretty good! Burgers...best store bought bacon yet! they also have some good pork ribs albeit precooked. Best bacon I ever had was from Meadow Farms Smokehouse in Bishop, California.
NBC surprised me with this article. It is in full support of Romney and capitalism and totally against Obama and anti-employer policy.
US producers are slaughtering their animals earlier because of cost. That means lower supply next year.
Fewer little piggies to go to market.
As to the economic definition of shortage, that's a load of BS when you are talking about $8 a pound. Yes Bacon demand is fairly elastic because people can just not use it, but try and substitute TOFU on your BLT.
Turkey bacon for all!
That's like smoking "light" cigarettes. All the risks, but with none of the flavor.
I'd rather set my hair on fire and have someone stomp it out with a track shoe than eat Turkey Bacon.
LOL thats how my hubby feels!
Shortages make for compeling news, even though the vast majority of them are either deliberately and craftily manufactured to artificially boost retail prices, or simply non-existent to begin with. Some
crooks in suitsfolks consider that good business.Doesn't this tell people that you have to be wary of what we see written as news? I thought that you were supposed to take these things with a grain of salt anyway. There's a lot of bias out there in the news. I thought that people were already aware of this phenomenon?
Oh, and another thing; these comments are absolutely hilarious. What a fun thread to read.
I'm sorry, but the premise that 'Government fixing prices' is what causes shortages is pure bull as well. There's a shortage of iPhone 5's too, did you hear? Apple sold out of their pre-orders and no one but market forces had anything to do with the price of the device.
Shortages occur ONLY because customer demand exceeds supply. Rationing occurs if the item is considered 'essential' so everyone can get some or by the vendor to encourage fair distribution or discourage hording and resale at higher prices. Prices affect demand, to be sure, but the only time government fixing prices ever comes into the picture is if it encourages/drives demand above supply. The same could be true if the vendor set prices too low.
I'm not an economist, Twanfox, but I think there may be a flaw in the analogy between iPhone 5s and bacon. Bacon is a commodity--it's price is set and reset constantly by the market. Apple Corporation acts to set the price of the iPhone. Yes, they do market analysis and such, but the price is fixed (okay, it's illegal for them to do that, but they have ways around that to set the retail price). In a true free market the price of iPhones would float up and down based on demand. Not enough to go around because the FoxConn plant burned down? Fine, reset that price to $600 with a four year contract. And there won't be any shortage. But there won't be very many around, either.
apple can set their own fixed price for their phones. its not illegal. it would be illegal if all the phone manufacturers colluded to fix prices across the industry. apple phone prices do adhere to supply and demand, the prices are set to what the market is willing pay. if apple raised their prices too much, less people would buy, affecting profits. if they lowered too much, too many phones would be sold too cheaply, apple wouldnt be able to make a profit. the shortage due to production doesnt change prices because it is only temporary, more phones will be delivered, the prices are set for the long term over the product life cycle. demand will only change if a competitor offers a significantly technologically better product and/or at a way better price, and most of these phones are relatively similar...
"First, as long as prices are allowed to rise and fall freely, there can be no shortage." - This line is a load of crap, it doesn't matter what type of product you are talking about, whether it is food, an iPhone, tolet paper or tickle-me-elmo. If producers fail to estimate the correct demand or conditions cause a problem in production you can end up with a shortage.
No, not greed....say it isn't so.
Whether bacon is a commodity and whether it's price varies daily is irrelevant. Know why? Because if a non-commodity product such as an iPhone is priced too high for the market (as in, they are not receiving in sufficient orders to the supply of devices they have), what happens? Sales, discounts. The price comes... down! The price adjusts in order to move the supply, because it will be realized that holding onto supply that doesn't move means that there is too much supply for the demand, and one way to influence the demand is to alter prices.
Whether a company chooses to alter their prices is really their choice, as the supply/demand graphs are not natural occurrences (like water flowing downhill) and are a judgement call on our part. Maximizing profits is a fine art, and while it can be fairly formulaic at times, it assumes you know or can control all of the factors going into it.
Besides, what's this line mean? "In a true free market the price of iPhones would float up and down based on demand." Is someone keeping Apple from altering the prices on their phones? Is there some regulation that says what Apple must sell their phones at? Or is it somehow determined, perhaps through market forces, that $750 or whatever they chose to set the price at was high enough for them to reap their profits while still not discouraging people from buying it. If it's the latter, frankly, that sounds like the 'free market' is setting the price to me. If Apple's being told what they can sell it at, then you have a case that it's somehow not a free market. Otherwise, can we learn what a free market is before comparing things to it?
I want to add to this another quick thought. Energy (electricity) is considered a commodity too, but the price on the market is often fixed by government. There are good reasons for doing this. It is in exchange for granting of right of ways for power lines without negotiation with each land owner. It is for granting of monopoly market so we don't have 100s of power lines serving the same area for different companies. It is for stability of prices and control of unchecked monopoly power, because a lone company holding your heating hostage for extortionist prices over the winter is a big problem. For whatever reason that you like, eletriciity prices are not influenced by free market forces.
Now ask yourself this question. Is there a shortage of electricity on a routine basis, or are the only times there are shortages (brown outs) due to excessive demand for the supply available (ie: everyone running their AC at once on a hot day)?
Okay, we're probably quibbling semantics here, but while it may be true that economic theory says there can't be a shortage as long as government keeps its mitts off of a product, there are outside factors that can drive the price of a product so high (because production is negatively impacted) that consumers won't buy it--they will find alternates or do with less. This does not lessen the perception of a shortage--we have bacon on the table less frequently, if ever, because it's too expensive. So, while there may not be a shortage in the pure economic sense, bacon priced so high that most couldn't afford it surely amounts to a national tragedy! :-)
as someone said, the only words you'll never hear: "Gosh I'm full - would you like the rest of my bacon?"
as someone said, the only words you will never hear are: "Gosh, I'm full - would you like the rest of my bacon?"
I have heard those words quite a few times. Not everyone is so attached to Bacon.
"... an independent meat market analyst in Edmonton, Okla" He's either from Edmond, OK or Edmonton, AB. Which is it? I'll take the analyst word anyway.