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Bureau of Labor Statistics
A broader measure of unemployment
In the last couple of years, you may have heard talk about how the “real” unemployment rate is much higher than the “official” one economists always talk about.
That’s not a crazy conspiracy theory.
The basic unemployment rate, which hit 9.4 percent in December, is calculated based on the number of people who say they don’t have a job but would like to have one and have looked for work actively in the last four weeks.
That rate is a good baseline for how the economy is doing. That’s why it’s mentioned most often in stories about joblessness.
Chances are we all know someone out there who also is unemployed but wouldn’t fit those characteristics.
The government tries to account for those people with what it calls “alternative measures of labor underutilization.”
That's a mouthful, but it includes people working part-time who would like to be working full-time. It also includes people who are considered “marginally attached” to the job market.
That means they would like to work but have only looked for a job some time in the last 12 months. In December, about half of those folks were what the government calls “discouraged workers,” or people who just don’t think there’s a job out there for them.
When you include all those people, the broader measure of unemployment jumps to 16.7 percent for December, according to the Labor Department. It’s stayed between 16.4 percent and 17.4 percent since May of 2009, the month before the recession officially ended.
By comparison, that measure stood at 8.8 percent in December of 2007, the month the recession began.
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While this month’s unemployment numbers from the BLS show modest improvement, they do not tell the entire story. Here are more details showing exactly how the Bureau’s own statistical methodology works:
http://viableopposition.blogspot.com/2011/01/interesting-look-at-interest-on-us-debt.html
U3 is not an accurate indicator of unemployment. There are many people who want a job but they do not qualify for benefits and they are not counted! Real unemployment is about 18-22% right now. Another way to look at unemployment is to count who is actually employed:
www.kondratieffwavecycle.com/unemployment/
Employment is a function of money supply. With a deflating money supply, existing prices and salaries cannot be sustained. This is a deflationary crash. M3 is deflating.
www.kondratieffwavecycle.com/economy/deflation-how-to-survive-it/
Government officials are inveterate prevaricators. They lie to us about unemployment statistics, they will lie about devaluation of the dollar until it happens, they lie about federal debt obligations. Government officials simply cannot be trusted. Anyone who bases his actions on government pronouncements is a fool.
Not true!
LL
Angus, I couldn't agree more. Anyone who believes ANYTHING coming from the mouth of Barack Hussein Obama, after he's told lie after lie, is just plain foolish.
And to rely on MSNBC is even worse.
Where are the numbers that account for the unemployed that were forced into going to college and loose their unemployment benifits? You remember, ". . . go back to school and retain benifits. . .". It's all rhetoric.
@Mike. Not only that, if you go back to school and happen to get a scholarship, that's taxable income.
Obviously 103,000 wouldn't drop the unemployment rate, the rate drop came from people giving up their job search... didn't stop the propaganda machine from printing otherwise though.
It should also be noted that the unemployment numbers that are presented in the media are often changed about a week after they are published. It's become a means to "rosy glasses" the official unemployment numbers and then quietly "correct" them prior to the next book entry. Thus we all get duped publicly and then they adjust the numbers. Check it out, it's happening constantly now.
A more telling number might be the full-time employment rate, not employment -- how many people are employed who want to be? That filters out the folks who's benefits have run out, those who have become discouraged, and those who are part time.
This is considered a "good graph?"
We know the unemployment rate is really higher than reported. A lot of unemployed people are not collecting benefits and are not in the system to be counted. If you are seeking work and didn't work in the right quarter to collect, then you are not in the system to be counted. If your benefits ran out and you are no longer collecting then you are also not being counted, but still unemployed.
That's a correct assumption according to my personal experience...I worked for a non-profit that didn't pay into the unemployment system, so I have been unable to draw unemployment and have been out of work 8 months. As a result, I don't appear on any official government rolls, so I'm one of the "hidden" unemployed you mention, offgridhermit...
We know the unemployment rate is really higher than reported. A lot of unemployed people are not collecting benefits and are not in the system to be counted. If you are seeking work and didn't work in the right quarter to collect, then you are not in the system to be counted. If your benefits ran out and you are no longer collecting then you are also not being counted, but still unemployed.
The underemployment number is closer to reality. It should be the official number, but it would be a political nightmare to switch to it as with all the low-information people thinking "unemployment went up 7 percent".
Renatele...
Add to that a number representing the size of the average paycheck of the people who are supposedly finding new jobs.
Agree. Not only that, those of us who are working are seeing our salaries stalled. And benefits increased.
Most of the jobs that are being created are seasonal, temp, contract, in other words short-term. Don't rely on nothing these days; we are in a global changeable economy.
Bottom line.................>>None of us believes any of this garbage.
that's not news to anyone to follows labor numbers on a regular basis who doesn't have his head up some right winger's ass. The good news is that all measures of employment utilization are moving in a positive direction and have been doing so on a lackluster level for the past year. Expect the pace to pick up in 2011.
Sure, as Bozobama continues his anti-business, anti-American policies, the labor market and unemployment will be just wonderful. When will the "hope and change" crowd get their heads out of their own and Obama's backside?
At the end of 8 years of republicans in the white house, the economy was losing 750,000 jobs per month. Absolute undeniable fact. 2 years later the economy is gaining 113,000 jobs per month in the private sector. It's not wonderful, but it's a vast improvement. Obama's policies include raising the expense limitation, lowering capital gains, increasing small business deductions for health care. All of these are highly pro-business.
Brought to you by the GOP and their big business buddies who are creating all the jobs overseas and not in the USA....
Actually, it is brought by the American people, for the American people. The problem is the lack of innovation. No one is designing anything of significance. Those who would like to are regulated out of the game by both parties. The only real place to grow a business is overseas. If we stop focusing on services and return our attention to quality durable goods we may finally find our way out. But, none of that matters unless we also change our current energy policy.
Kevin bitz these figures have nothing to do with the GOP or the Demos. These are factual numbers.
And thos in power have done absolutely nothing to alleviate this problem.....and are not likely to do it soon/
The elitists are making their final play, which will propel them to unprecedented levels of wealth at the expense of laying waste to the United States of America.
The affluent elitists and the corporations now collectively own the government in a loose group called the Ownership Club.
They even purchase and trade all of our politicians like rare baseball cards, you know, for the fun of it.
LOL - the chart said we were between 17% and 18% (at a point when its is at its highest) and it was announced that "the recession is over." If you add in people that never drew UI benefits, high school and college grads, and older people that had to go back to work because their 401K's, etc. went into the dumpster then the actual percentage is more like 20+%. I've been trying for almost 3 years to get a job (its my new 24 hour a day/7 days a week job to find one) and still haven't been able to get one. I've never been unemployed in my life and now I'm being punished because my employer laid me off in 2008. I guess I'll be heading for the food stamp line soon. Welcome to the U.S. - POVERTY CENTRAL.
I haven't seen one comment about all the illegals holding down supposed jobs amercians won't do, but this is one huge problem and little or nothing is being done by our government and businesses get away with it everyday, schools being overrun, healthcare overrun, you name it but the crybaby liberals want to pat'em on the butt and send merrily on their way with our money you liberal morons.. get it...our money... US citizens money. I wonder what the illegals unemployment rate is? Oh thats right absolutely no chance of finding that out but they do think there are 12 million of these winners here and we all get to suck on it.
You're telling me that you would spend all day picking lettuce for $2 or $3 an hour? Or maybe picking strawberries in a field all day is more to your liking. De-tassleling Corn...or pick your nasty job of the day and the illegals are doing it. They are doing the jobs that 99% of Americans would NOT want to be doing.
Vict - every illegal in this country is picking produce? come on. They work in construction (through subcontractors so the big national homebuilders can say 'we don't hire illegals), and they take a lot of service type jobs that our homegrown poor could take - like restaurant work, hotel maids, landscaping, etc... Years ago, jobs in meatpacking plants were decent middle class jobs, til Agribusiness figured out they could pay illegals less, work them to exhaustion, and fire them at will (the turnover rate at meatpacking plants is almost 100% for that reason). Produce picking, yes, we need migrant workers for that work - but the rest are jobs American citizens should have, but they can't compete with illegals who've depressed the wages.
it sounds good to say the department of labor statistics are accurate. they aren't, and unemployment is even worse than this article implies. here's why. the work week average has fallen to less than 33 hours per week for all full time employees in the united states which is not taken into account by the bureau of labor statistics. nor is the tremendous reduction in benefits like sick leave, reduced overtime pay and reduced contributions to pensions and 401ks. the biggest fallacy though that the government purports to make is that wages have increased to keep pace with inflation. what a lie! the department of labor bases hourly wages on all money made by all individuals including hedgefund traders and and all ceos, top executives and all managers and business owners. fine, but when we are talking about wage earners they should be estimated accurately independent of someone making a couple of billion dollars a year. when this is done, and all the aforementioned factors are accounted for, earnings for actual wage earners are lower than they were in 1980.
So it's actually more like 3 lost decades of progress.
I too am one who fell off the "grid" after two plus years of trying to land a job. ANY job. Either over-qualified or my age, 58. Anyone want to argue there's no such thing as age discrimination? I'm fit, can ride a bike 20 miles non-stop. 50 push-ups, 200 sit-ups and even can make change from a $20 when someone hands over pennies to round off their return.
20%+ EASY, for unemployed and severely underemployed (wages that pay less than unemployment checks.) oh, and I didn't receive one cent from unemployment since I was FORCED to take early retirement.
Kevin i am a republican and i believe the GOP and the Democrats are both responsible bringing in illegal immigrants to do the work that Americans can't do has morphed into illegals working in all phases now of employment.We have dozens of trade agreements one being (Nafta)with several countries which take jobs out of the economy and have never benefited the USA! Both are responsible and are looking at a GLOBAL ECONOMY and not the USA.And i will through in WALLSTREET as a culprit....
I had a suggestion and a likely solution to cure our unemployment woes last month. I sent it to at least 5 members of Congress as well as our President.
The solution:
Place a condition on extending the Bush Tax Cuts for the wealthy. In order to keep the lower tax rate, the wealthy would have to show they hired American workers in a number correlating to the amount of their income above a certain threshold. In other words - if the wealthy would relieve the government of the burden of high unemployment, the government could AFFORD to give them a tax break.
The response:
None! Surprised? You shouldn't be. The unemployed will not donate to a campaign. It has been said that money is the root of all evil. Until we take big money out of politics, the system will remain broken.
Check, you want to check your quotes, first, please. The biblical quote is, "The LOVE of money is the root of all evil." Money itself is not evil, but the seeking of it before serving our Lord is. However, your socialist response in the area of income-redistribution is NOT the answer (though Obama wants it to be) in this great, free country.
I understand that the unemployment rate is high, but ..... my husband is currently hiring a sales person - he scheduled interviews with upwards of 15 people. A minimum of 7 of them no-showed or called just an hour before the interview to cancel. Clearly, they didn't need the job that badly. His company pays well and has good hours, but these unemployed people couldn't be bothered to even appear at the interview. That is very frustrating to me when I hear about how we need to extend unemployment money, even though there are jobs ... maybe it is temporary, but at least you could say you are taking care of yourself instead of forcing someone else to pay for you because you can't be bothered to look for a job.
Most of the "sales positions" that I've seen advertised are usually commission- only positions, when people need a paycheck that they can count on. It's easy for a company to hire sales people when there is no financial risk, except for the person that accepts that position.
hey msnbc, why haven't you posted an employment/unemployment survey. Let the readers be counted too. nobody has ever called me to ask if i've found work in the 2.5 years since i've been layed off. i want to work. i wish to find a job. i'm actively seeking employment. beating the pavement, not just hiding in the home office emailing resumes. but actually getting out there. and still, no fruit. but sooner hopefully than later, i'll score... i hope!
To offgridhermit: Everything you have written is absolutely true. We are off the grid when our benefits exhaust or we did not have any to begin with. Over-educated - - over-aged - - out of luck. I have been looking forever for a job it seems and have found zip. I have never had a problem landing a good job.. I know the rate for unemployed and underemployed is much higher than they are telling us. As the UI rate goes up so will crime and suicide rates. Steer clear of beneath bridges and high rise buildings. You won't find those stats printed anywhere either.